Mike Sheets
May 27, 2024, 07:00 PM
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Waldron's knuckleball upgrade
Knuckleballers are notoriously difficult to project, as they can be prone to stretches of inconsistency depending on how the knuckler is working. A quick glance at Matt Waldron's game log this season supports that point. Despite surrendering two or fewer earned runs in six of 10 starts, a few bad outings have ballooned his ERA to 4.86. That said, a recent tweak to Waldron's repertoire has piqued our interest.
When Waldron was hammered for eight runs (seven earned) by the Arizona Diamondbacks back in early May, his knuckleball velocity sat at 77 mph. Since then, that velocity has slowly ticked up, averaging 79.7 mph with the pitch (and topping out at 82.2 mph) in his last start. According to work done by Eno Sarris, increased knuckleball velo does make the pitch more effective, and we've witnessed that from Waldron in his last few turns.
Not only does Waldron own a 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his past three outings, but he's also struck out 23 batters over his past 16 frames, including fanning a career-high 10 hitters against the Atlanta Braves on May 17. We'll need more than three starts to know whether these velocity gains will hold, but it's certainly an interesting development for the right-hander, who is still available in 98% of ESPN leagues.
Caution is still warranted here, but there's little reason not to employ Waldron as a streamer on Tuesday. On top of his recent success, he has an extremely favorable matchup, squaring off a Miami Marlins club that's been the worst in baseball versus right-handed pitching with a 70 wRC+. Scoop up the knuckleballer for the Miami start and see where things go from there.
Everything else you need to know for Tuesday
Zack Littell (15% rostered in ESPN leagues) hasn't generated much interest in fantasy circles, but it's not because he hasn't earned it. Through 10 starts, the righty has delivered a 3.42 ERA with a 9.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9, with his ERA being fully supported by a 3.26 xERA. Fire Littell up on Tuesday against an exploitable Oakland lineup that's striking out 26% of the time with a bottom-10 wOBA (.302).
Another undervalued hurler, Andrew Abbott (19%) has produced a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 10 starts for the Cincinnati Reds. The lefty's strikeout rate is down this season (6.8 K/9), but he's showing better control (2.4 BB/9) and is allowing way less hard contact this year (30.6%) compared to last (42.5%). On Tuesday, Abbott is set to match up against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have been playing better lately, but are still below average against lefties, ranking 23rd in baseball with a 92 wRC+ versus southpaws. The Reds left-hander is firmly in the streamer discussion.
After being sidelined since May 6 with a hamstring injury, Wyatt Langford is expected to be activated from the injured list on Tuesday. The 22-year-old didn't set the league on fire in his first 31 big league games, slashing .224/.295/.293 with one homer and one steal. However, as one of the game's top prospects, his upside remains significant. Currently rostered in 38% of leagues, Langford is at least worth monitoring as he rejoins the Texas Rangers' outfield.
Ben Brown is coming off an outing against the Atlanta Braves in which he fired four shutout frames while striking out six. While it was an impressive (albeit short) performance, he figures to have his hands full on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday. With a 119 wRC+ and 337 wOBA versus right-handed pitching, the Brewers' offense has been tops in the National League this season. Plus, after throwing just 66 pitches in his last outing, Brown figures to have a short leash again, making him a risky streaming option.
It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Danny Jansen (TOR, C -- 11%) at Mike Clevinger
Tyler Freeman (CLE, 3B -- 10%) at Ryan Feltner
Adam Duvall (ATL, CF -- 1%) vs. Jake Irvin
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 6%) vs. Triston McKenzie
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL, 1B -- 19%) vs. Brayan Bello
Joc Pederson (ARI, LF -- 6%) at Dane Dunning
Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 21%) vs. McKenzie
Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF -- 19%) at Andrew Abbott
Sean Murphy (ATL, C -- 49%) vs. Irvin
Davis Schneider (TOR, 2B -- 6%) at Clevinger
Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 53%) at Tarik Skubal
Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 64%) at Freddy Peralta
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 74%) at Luis Castillo
Christopher Morel (CHC, CF -- 69%) at Peralta
Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 63%) at Peralta
Yainer Diaz (HOU, C -- 81%) at Castillo
Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 57%) at Dunning
Ryan Jeffers (MIN, C -- 71%) vs. Cole Ragans
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 57%) vs. Tyler Glasnow
Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 76%) at Peralta
